With the ACC Tournament pairings set, it’s time to take a look at the projected outcomes, advancement probabilities, and odds to win the tournament. To do this I apply Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor Ratings to each of the matchups to determine a projected winner and margin of victory.
(The Predictor Ratings are one of four ratings that Sagarin publishes daily at USAToday.com and are designed for predicting the outcomes of future games.)
Once we know the projected margin of victory for a game, we can assign a win probability. The concept behind this is that historical results tell us how likely a team is to win based on its projected margin of victory.
Projected ACC Tournament Results (Percentages represent win probability.):
First round, Tuesday, March 10:
13-Georgia Tech (54%) over 12-Boston College by 1
11-Wake Forest (63%) over 14-Virginia Tech by 3
Second round, Wednesday, March 11:
8-Clemson (55%) over 9-Florida State by 1
5-North Carolina (90%) over 13-Georgia Tech by 13
7-NC State (69%) over 10-Pittsburgh by 5
6-Miami (77%) over 11-Wake Forest by 7
Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 12:
1-Virginia (95%) over 8-Clemson by 16
5-North Carolina (57%) over 4-Louisville by 2
2-Duke (82%) over 7-NC State by 9
3-Notre Dame (69%) over 6-Miami-Florida by 5
Semifinals, Friday, March 13:
1-Virginia (65%) over 5-North Carolina by 4
2-Duke (71%) over 3-Notre Dame by 6
Championship, Saturday, March 14:
1-Virginia (54%) over 2-Duke by 1
Calculating a team’s probability to advance in the tournament involves applying the Sagarin Predictor Ratings to each possible opponent and taking into account the probability they will meet that opponent.
Probability to Advance