Vs     

Opponent: Duke Blue Devils
Game Location: NCAA Tournament Elite Eight – Lucas Oil Field, Indianapolis, IN.
Tip Off: 5:05 pm
Record: 30-5
Head Coach: Mike Krzyzewski (33rd season)
TV: CBS with Jim Nanz and Clark Kellogg on the call
Radio: 84-WHAS with Paul Rogers & Bob Valvano on the call
Record Vs RPI Top 50: 9-2
Key Wins: Louisville, Ohio State, Miami, North Carolina
Spread: Louisville – 3
Previous Meeting: Duke, 76  Louisville, 71 – November 24th, 2012, Battle 4 Atlantis Championship

Projected Starting Line-up’s

Louisville

C Gorgui Dieng, 6’11”, 235 pounds

PF Chane Behanan, 6’6”, 250 pounds

F Wayne Blackshear, 6’5”, 230 pounds

G Russ Smith, 6’0”, 165 pounds

PG Peyton Siva, 6’0”, 185 pounds

Duke

F Ryan Kelly, 6’11″, 230 pounds

F Mason Plumlee, 6’10″, 235 pounds

G Rasheed Sulaimon, 6’4″, 185 pounds

G Seth Curry, 6’2″, 185 pounds

G Quinn Cook, 6’1″, 175 pounds

First of all, I think today’s match-up between Louisville and Duke will feature the two best teams in the nation. And I think they’ve been the best all year long. Yeah the Cards hit a little skid in January and dropped three in a row and Duke dropped a few without Ryan Kelly in the line-up, but overall, these two have been the best. It’s just a shame that only one will march on to the Final Four. In all reality, Duke deserved a 1-seed over Indiana for sure and you could also make the case that at worse they should have gotten the final 1-seed and been sent out west over Gonzaga. But whatever. We’re here, there’s nothing we can do about it and we have an incredible game on tap. The Blue Devils are here by virtue of their wins over Albany (1st round, 73-61), Creighton (second round, 66-50) and Michigan State (Sweet 16, 71-61). In their win over Michigan State, Seth Curry went off for 6 three-pointers and was a perfect 7-7 from the free-throw line en route to his huge 29-point performance. Senior forward Mason Plumlee chipped in 14 points and 7 boards and freshman guard Rasheed Sulaimon posted 16 points and 4 rebounds. Duke was clutch down the stretch at the free-throw line and finished 24-26 for the game. They did get outrebounded by the Spartans, 33-29, but took care of the ball and only turned it over 8 times.

Today’s game will mark the rematch of the Battle 4 Atlantis Championship in which Duke outlasted Louisville, 76-71 in the Bahamas. However, as has been widely discussed, the Cards were without their future NBA center, Gorgui Dieng, who injured his wrist the previous night in a win over Missouri. Dieng’s absence in the middle meant big time minutes for seldom-used back-up center Zach Price, and the Blue Devils were able to get into the paint and make plays at the rim throughout the night. Plumlee did whatever he wanted around the rim – with little resistance – and led Duke in scoring (16 points) and rebounds (7). Big man Ryan Kelly also had a solid outing, netting 14 points and grabbing 6 boards. Point guard Quinn Cook played one of his better games on the season, totaling 14 points and dishing out 6 assists. His counterparts in Duke’s three guard line-up, Rasheed Sulaimon and Seth Curry, also played well and put up 14 points a piece. As a team, Duke shot 43% from the field, 25% from behind the three point line and 85% from the free-throw line. If you’re pegging a weakness from that first meeting, without a doubt it was bench production (or lack thereof). The Blue Devils got just 3 points, 3 assists and 6 rebounds from their bench – total.

For Louisville, they got a huge performance from both Russ Smith (17 points, 7 rebounds) and Peyton Siva (19 points, 4 assists) in the first meeting and will need a similar effort to put away this efficient Duke team. Siva got in early foul trouble against Oregon and, though Kevin Ware has played brilliantly lately, will need to play smart, alert and avoid any costly reach-in fouls. Smith, the Tournament’s leading scorer at 27 ppg, has been sensational in Louisville’s first three games and has showed no signs of letting down. For me, the real difference is the presence of Dieng this time around and the emergence of the Cardinals’ bench. In the two teams’ first meeting, Luke Hancock and Wayne Blackshear combined for just 2 points and Kevin Ware only scored 4 points. The rise of Hancock and Ware have directly coincided with Louisville’s ascent up the national offensive rankings. In fact, they’re now 9th overall in Ken Pom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. This is a vastly different team than the one the Blue Devils saw in November.

On the season, Duke averages 78.3 points per game (6th in the nation), shoot 47% from the field (17th in the nation), dished out 14.7 assists per game (57th in the nation) and average 33.8 rebounds per game (213th in the nation). They’re 3rd in ESPN’s BPI Rankings, 4th overall according to KenPom’s rankings (including 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency), they’re 6th in the Sagarin Ratings and #1 in the RPI. Basically, this is a really, really good team that doesn’t have many weaknesses. So far in the Tournament, Curry has led the Blue Devils in scoring, averaging 24 points per game including 10-20 from the three-point line. He’s been phenomenal and has caught fire at the right time for Duke. He’s been bothered by a nagging shin injury all year, though, so the quick turn-around after a physical battle against Michigan State could cause some issues for the senior. Sulaimon has also shot the ball well in the Tournament, averaging 14 points and shooting 50% from the field. Cook hasn’t scored in bunches but he’s handed out 19 assists in the three games against just 6 turnovers.

Today’s game marks the 27th anniversary – to the date – that Louisville defeated Duke in the 1986 National Championship game.

Fate? I don’t know, but it should be a classic match-up between two of the blue bloods of the sport. Go Cards.

* Video Courtesy of the Courier Journal

Photo – ESPN

Step 3 of 6, complete. The University of Louisville once again climbed on the back of Russ Smith and helped Rick Pitino move to an incredible 11-0 all time in Sweet 16 games. Smith led all scorers with 31 points despite having flu-like symptoms and delivered perhaps his best performance in a Cardinal uniform. With fellow backcourt running mate Peyton Siva out for almost the entire first half after getting into early foul trouble, Smith shouldered the load and was unstoppable from the wing, driving into the paint and shooting from behind the three-point line. The Cards were outrebounded, 33-32, and also turned it over more than Oregon (13-12) but they once again showed a vastly-improved offense and ended up shooting over 50% for the third straight time. It wasn’t the vintage, stingy defense that Louisville fans have come accustomed to seeing, but if you factor in the team’s health, obvious fatigue and the overall pace of the game, this one wasn’t set up to be a grinder in the 50′s. Regardless of how it happened, Louisville gets the W and will now have the tall task of taking down Duke in order to advance on to the program’s 10th Final Four.

• Gotta start with Russ. I mean, I really don’t know what else to say at this point. His offense has gone to another level lately. And the crazy thing is, he’s doing it efficiently. Did you ever think you’d see the words Russ and efficient offense in the same sentence? Sure he’s still taking  the occasional crazy shot, but an occasional crazy shot is a whole hell of a lot better than 7-8 crazy shots like the old Russ would give us. For the Tournament he’s now averaging 27 points per game (1st overall) and he’s shooting 55% from the field. And, just for kicks, he’s leading the Tournament in steals with 11 (including his record-setting performance against North Carolina A&T). He’s been the best player in this Tournament, hands down.
• One other note about Russ…… I know there’s still a major question mark when it comes to his NBA prospects. From what I’ve read, most GM’s are scared to death of him, but a few see him as a legit contributor at the next level. I’m no NBA scout, but unlike a lot of college basketball fans, I love the League and watch a good amount of games. My take is this: The way in which he’s able to twist and contort his body in the lane and finish against bigger players is unbelievable. You can’t teach it. His shot is also vastly improved from long range and he’s been a dead-eye free throw shooter all year. His offense has come light years here at Louisville in just 2 years. Imagine how much better he can get in the next several years as he grows into his prime? Then there’s the defensive side of the ball. Honestly, is there a better on-ball defender? Maybe Aaron Craft of Ohio State? He’s lightning quick and is always in good defensive position. Also, unlike Peyton Siva, he’s never in foul trouble and can always be depended on from that angle. His size is the one and only concern since bigger guards in the NBA will go into the post a lot more often and utilize height discrepancies. But, again, I think his overall skillset and the positives he brings, far outweigh the few negatives. There’s a spot somewhere on a team for Russ.
• Peyton Siva – that was your one get-out-of-jail-free card. Hope you enjoyed it. Because, if that happens again, I’m not sure we can overcome better teams moving forward without you on the floor. In vintage Siva fashion, he picked up two bad fouls before the first TV timeout and then sat until after halftime. Now, admittedly, Kevin Ware’s emergence lately has made me far less worried and nervous if Siva isn’t playing well, but I have to think against a team like Duke, the Cards will need its best facilitator and co-captain on the floor, not the bench. 4 points, 3 assists and 4 turnovers ain’t gonna get it done.
• About that Kevin Ware kid……wow. It’s crazy to see how far he’s come in the last few weeks. An amazing transformation in confidence and execution. He was relentless last night, attacking the slower Oregon guards off the dribble and they had no answer for his quick first step and spiderman-length. He finished 5-7 from the floor with 11 points and just 1 turnover. However, when he’s in the game, it’s clear he’s not the passer that Siva is. He failed to record an assist in 25 minutes. Still, I’m not going to complain too much. He’s been tremendous lately and has been a big part of this team’s success.
• Rick Pitino seemed pretty concerned about his team’s lack of defense last night, but I think it had more to do with the style Oregon played. They wanted no part of a slowed-down game and they were gonna get some points in transition. When Louisville got set into their 2-3 zone, Oregon often had no answers. Couple that with the obvious fatigue factors and team illnesses, and this was more of an exception than the norm. Incredibly, it marked only the 3rd time in the Cards’ last 13 games that an opponent was able to score 60 points or more. And one thing the defense did do well? How about hold Oregon’s leading Tournament scorer, Damyean Dotson, to just 12 points on 5-14 shooting. As long as they’re dialed back in for Sunday’s match-up, there’s no point to dwell on the defense’s performance last night.
• Louisville shot 17-28 in the first half. That’s 60%, folks. If the offense continues to play at this level, they won’t get beat.
• The Cards absolutely dominated Oregon in the paint. In fact, 21 of their first 24 points came in the paint and they ended up with 42 for the game. And they did it using all their weapons: Ware and Smith off the dribble, Gorgui in the post, Harrell and Behanan had stick-backs, etc. Pitino’s teams have been dominated by the perimeter game here over the last few years, so it’s nice to see a unit so focused on getting inside and scoring at or around the rim.
• Someone out in Vegas had to get stabbed with a rusty prison shank after Siva got tied up on that last possession and Oregon ended up scoring. The spread was ten and some of the wiseguys would have at least gotten away with a push. Uh-uh. The Ducks scored that lay-up after the possession arrow favored them and the final margin of victory was eight. Just another reason why I don’t gamble.
• Am I the only one with a completely different feeling about this year’s Tournament run, compared to last? Like, last year it was all gravy. It was an exciting, crazy time and each game we won was just an added bonus. Who could have foreseen a Final Four run after those losses to Syracuse and South Florida to end the regular season? This year, I don’t know….it’s almost like there’s no joy. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still exciting and I love what’s happening. But there’s more of sense of relief with each passing win, more than anything else. I know a big part of it is because we’re the favorite and we all expect to win these games. But I think a bigger part of it is that a National Championship is the goal. Making another Final Four will be ok, but is that what we really want? I’ll say it: I’d be disappointed if we don’t hang our third banner. This is the best team we’ve had since 86′ and it’s our best opportunity to cut down the nets. I think that’s where this business-like approach is coming from. The real joy won’t be totally realized until the last seconds tick off the clock in Atlanta and Jim Nantz calls the Cardinals ‘champions.’
• One other thing that I’m glad the team got out of their system was that so-so free-throw shooting performance. They finished better down the stretch and ended up 17-26 (64%), but they missed a lot of one-and-one situations and lost some key possessions when Oregon sliced into that 18 point lead in the second half. If you watched the Duke game last night, they made every big free-throw in the last 5 minutes. They went 24-26 (93%) and sealed the game at the line. Louisville can ill-afford to let those free opportunities slip away against the Blue Devils tomorrow night. The Cards have been much better lately, so hopefully that was just a one-time deal. I’ve been saying it for the past couple weeks, at some point Louisville is going to be locked up in a tight game and will have to execute at the free-throw line to get a win. That time could be coming tomorrow in Indianapolis.

So, it’s been an interesting ride to the Elite 8. Even though the Cards won by just 8 last night, they were in control for the entire game and were never truly threatened. In fact, they haven’t been threatened at all so far in this Tournament. But I think tomorrow’s game is going to be one for the ages. I thought Duke got shafted and should have been a 1-seed and, in my mind, this is the match-up we should have seen in the National Championship game. I was banging on IU for weeks calling them overrated and The Devils definitely should have been given that spot. Anyway, we all know we’re in for an intense, all-out war tomorrow. Full preview coming soon…..we’ve got our hands full.

     Vs     

Opponent: Oregon Ducks
Game Location: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 – Lucas Oil Field, Indianapolis, IN.
Tip Off: 7:15 pm
Record: 28-8
Head Coach: Dana Altman
TV: CBS with Jim Nanz and Clark Kellogg on the call
Radio: 84-WHAS with Paul Rogers & Bob Valvano on the call
Record Vs RPI Top 50: 4-3
Key Wins: UCLA (2), Arizona, UNLV,
Spread: Louisville – 10.5
Officials: N/A

Projected Starting Line-up’s

Louisville

C Gorgui Dieng, 6’11”, 235 pounds

PF Chane Behanan, 6’6”, 250 pounds

F Wayne Blackshear, 6’5”, 230 pounds

G Russ Smith, 6’0”, 165 pounds

PG Peyton Siva, 6’0”, 185 pounds

Oregon

F EJ Singler, 6’6″, 215 pounds

F Arsalan Kazemi, 6’7″, 225 pounds

C Tony Woods, 6’11″, 243 pounds

G Dominic Artis, 6’1″, 185 pounds

G Damyean Dotson, 6’5″, 202 pounds

It’s time to go to work. I don’t wanna make it sound like those opening two games weren’t tough, but Louisville’s average margin of victory of 27.5 points doesn’t exactly make the case that they were incredibly difficult, either. Granted, the Cards deserve a ton of credit for making a pretty good team (Colorado State) look pretty average on Saturday night. All that said, now things are going to get really difficult as Rick Pitino’s squad (31-5) looks to navigate the formidable Midwest Region and earn a berth to its second straight Final Four. Tonight in Indianapolis the Cards will take the first step in that journey by taking on the PAC-12  Champion Oregon Ducks at Lucas Oil Field. The Ducks (absurdly seeded 12th) are here after taking care of Oklahoma State in the first round, 68-55, and St. Louis, 74-57, this past weekend. They’re hot and, just like Louisville, are clearly peaking at the right time and playing their best basketball of the season. Led by the freshmen backcourt duo of Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson, the Ducks have used a blend of defensive full-court pressure and a high octane offense to make it to their first Sweet 16 in 6 years. Dotson is currently 7th among remaining Tournament players in scoring, averaging right at 20 ppg on 14-26 field goals (54%). Since coming back from a foot injury that kept him out nearly two months from January to March, Artis has helped lead his team to 5-straight wins. Though, he is coming off a brutal game against the Billikens in which he went 0-7 from the field and failed to record a single point or rebound. Suffice to say, they’ll need him to get back on track if they want to knock off the #1 overall seeded Cardinals.

For the season, the Ducks had three players average right around 11 ppg (EJ Singler, Carlos Emory and Dotson) and, like Louisville, use a very balanced offensive attack. Power forward Arsalan Kazemi averaged 9 points and 9.9 rebound on the season while shooting a robust 58% from the field. So far in the NCAA Tournament, Kazemi has been a beast on the backboards collecting 33 rebounds in just two games (17 and 16, respectively). The Louisville post players, for the second straight game, are going to have to find a way to keep a solid rebounder off the glass and out of the painted area. A familiar name to Cardinal fans, Tony Woods, has been ok in the middle for the Ducks (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg on the season) but will surely come out looking to make an impression against the team he once committed to play for. But the most overlooked player over this last 5 game stretch for the Ducks, has been reserve point guard Jonathan Loyd. Tiny in stature (5’8, 165 lbs), Loyd has been solid lately and put up 9 points, 6 assists and 5 boards in just 24 minutes against St. Louis. Oregon has a deep and talented bench and have 9 different players that average at least 10 minutes per game. Dana Altman will have no problems playing chess with his bench players if he sees an unfavorable match-up at any point in tonight’s game.

A quick look at Oregon’s national stats don’t necessarily show that they do any one thing particularly well, but they’re fairly balanced from an overall perspective. They average 71.7 ppg (69th in the nation), they grab 37.4 rebounds per game (52nd in the nation), dish out 13 assists per game (151st in the nation) and shoot .447% from the field (97th in the nation). They’re ranked 30th overall according to KenPom.com and 9th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a team, Like Louisville, that has built its recent winning ways at the defensive end. They’re 35th in the Sagarin Ratings, 33rd in ESPN’s BPI Rankings and they’re antiquated RPI is 47th. The key for the Cards is, at least in my estimation, quite simple: keep doing what you’ve been doing. The Ducks are leading the remaining field in turnovers at 18 per game and have a habit of trying to push the tempo too much at times, which causes them to get sloppy. Against a Louisville team that, in Tournament play, is forcing their opponents to turn the ball over on 35.9% of their possessions, that could spell disaster. However, as Pitino noted in his press conference yesterday, this team also forces an inordinate amount of turnovers themselves (13 a game so far) and are really effective at getting the ball in play quickly and getting up the floor to avoid pressure in the press. Louisville’s Peyton Siva, Russ Smith and Kevin Ware will have to be dialed-in once again and create deflections not only in the press, but when the team falls back into their 2-3 zone.

Bottom line: I’m cautiously optimistic tomorrow. I think Oregon’s weaknesses play right into the hands of the Cardinals’ defense. Louisville’s physical style should wear on them and take their legs away as the game comes down the stretch. As was the case all year, don’t worry if we’re in a tight one with 10 minutes left in the game. Louisville’s pressure is cumulative and, eventually, I have to think the Ducks break down and start making mental mistakes. At any rate, hold on, we’re in for a hell of a ride.

Photo – Yahoo Sports

By now you’ve all seen the outstanding work that Luke Winn does over at Sports Illustrated with his weekly college basketball power rankings. Well, today he released an enhanced version featuring only the 16 teams still alive in the NCAA Tournament. As you might have guessed, Louisville sits atop the rankings and Winn provides a crazy “Turn-o-meter” graphic that shows Russ Smith creating defensive havoc at all-time clip. And Peyton Siva, Wayne Blackshear, Luke Hancock and Kevin Ware aren’t far behind. Incredibly, according to Winn, Louisville as a team, is forcing turnovers on 35.9% of their opponents’ possessions. With Oregon’s propensity to turn the ball over at a rapid pace, this surely can’t bode well for the Ducks tomorrow in Indianapolis. Here’s the Louisville excerpt and you can read the entire piece over on Sports Illustrated’s site.

Louisville Cardinals (Midwest No. 1, vs. No. 12 Oregon)

Just how much thievery did the Cardinals pull off in their first two NCAA tournament games? They forced 47 turnovers on an estimated 131 defensive possessions, putting their turnover percentage at 35.9. For context, their season-long TO% is 28.0 — and that ranks No. 2 in the nation, behind only VCU’s 28.5.

Rather than focus on just one Louisville player, I reviewed film of all 47 turnovers and created a full-team Turnometer. If you weren’t already calling Russ Smith the early tournament MVP for his offense, you should after seeing this:

It’s only a two-game sample, but still, Smith’s personal turnover percentage of 12.9 percent is incredible. Ohio State pest Aaron Craft, who inspired this whole Turnometer concept in the first place, finished the regular season at just 6.3 percent, and in the tournament, he’s at 9.5.

Photo – NCAA.com

According to Vegas, Louisville’s Russ Smith is the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA Tournament’s Most Valuable Player award at the conclusion of the national championship. According to this article linked from WDRB’s Eric Crawford, Pregame.com (a Vegas hadicapping site) has Russ Smith at 6-1 overall, just ahead of Indiana’s Tyler Zeller and Victor Oladipo. All of this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering that Vegas has Louisville as its favorite (3-1) to win the NCAA Tournament. Someone has to win the award and the Tournament’s current leading scorer (among active players) seems like a good candidate. Louisville tips off against Oregon tomorrow night at 7:15 EST on CBS for the right to advance to the Elite Eight.

Russ Smith is the Las Vegas favorite to win the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award.

Smith’s odds are at 6-1, according to RJ Bell of Pregame.com. Next are Victor Oladipo at 8-1, Cody Zeller at 9-1, Peyton Siva at 10-1, Duke’s Seth Curry at 12-1 and Trey Burke of Michigan at 14-1.

U of L, the No. 1 overall seed, remains the favorite to win the championship heading into Sweet 16 play, at 3-1. Indiana is 4-1, Florida at 5-1 and Ohio State at 8-1.

U of L and Florida are the only two teams that Vegas gives a better than 50 percent chance to win the championship.

Kansas is the only No. 1 seed left not favored to win its region.

* Video courtesy of The Courier Journal

Photo – ESPN

After the completion of the opening rounds of the NCAA Tournament, Louisville’s Russ Smith is leading all active players in scoring. Smith, at 25 ppg is technically tied with Arizona’s Mark Lyons (also averaging 25 per game) and is just ahead of DeShaun Thomas of Ohio State and his 23 ppg clip. Smith, the undersized, two-star recruit from New York, continues to astound and amaze me on a daily basis. From a complete afterthought as an injured freshman to everybody’s worst nightmare last year as a sophomore, he’s blossomed into not only a remarkable person away from the court, but a flat-out incredible basketball player. If someone told you three years ago when he committed to play at Louisville that he’d be averaging 25 a game in the NCAA Tournament and was a sure-fire NBA player, you’d be the one who needed to be committed somewhere. It’s just another reason why Rick Pitino is a hall of fame coach (if he’s not inducted next week, heads need to roll). What he’s been able to do with Smith from both a basketball and maturity standpoint, is nothing short of miraculous. Say what you will about him not getting enough pro talent since his arrival at Louisville (though it certainly appears to be trending in the right direction now), he gets the absolute most out of his players and is second-to-none at developing his kids.

I couldn’t find a website that tracked NCAA Tournament scoring by individual players so the following numbers were derived from my own “research.”  It’s incredibly possible that my math is fuzzy, so feel free to cross-check the digits.

Tournament Leading Scorers

Name                             Average                School

Russ Smith                    25 ppg                      Louisville

Mark Lyons                  25 ppg                      Arizona

DeShaun Thomas       23 ppg                      Ohio State

Bernard Thompson   23 ppg                      FGCU

Vander Blue                 22.5 ppg                  Marquette

Ramon Galloway        21.5 ppg                  La Salle

Seth Curry                     21.5 ppg                  Duke

Sherwood Brown        20.5 ppg                 FGCU

Damyean Dotson        20 ppg                     Oregon

Mitch McGary              17 ppg                     Michigan

 

* Khalif Wyatt of Temple had been averaging 31 ppg before losing to Indiana this past Sunday

H/T to Crum’s Revenge for his great work on this one….

Photo – Sweet Tees

The full slate of tip-off times and TV schedules have been released and Louisville will face Oregon at 7:15 in Indianapolis on Friday night. The game will be carried on CBS and will be called by the inimitable duo of Jim Nanz and Clark Kellogg. I’m a little surprised that the Cards didn’t get the call for the night cap in Indy, but whatever. The Ducks have won 5 straight since getting star point guard Dominic Artis back from an ankle injury and will certainly provide a much more athletic look than what the Cards saw in their two games in Lexington.